Job growth amounted to 57,000. Analysts predicted an increase of 113,000 jobs; Forecast markets were more optimistic, expecting gains of more than 125,000 but fewer than 150,000 jobs.

Key figures from the employment report

The June US jobs report has something for everyone:
🔘On the one hand, the number of non-agricultural jobs increased by only 57,000. Analysts predicted an increase of 113,000; Forecast markets were more optimistic, expecting growth of more than 125,000 but less than 150,000.
🔘On the other hand, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped slightly to 4.2%.
🔘Economists (as well as forecast markets) believed that the unemployment rate would be 4.3%.

Reaction in bonds, the dollar and equity futures

Following the release of the data, US stock futures hit their morning highs as traders expect weak job growth to reduce the need for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. The two-year Treasury yield fell to 4.11% from 4.19% within minutes of the data, and the US dollar fell against its major trading partners.

What the data could mean for Federal Reserve policy

Improved labor market indicators since the start of the year, coupled with persistent price pressures, prompted the Federal Reserve to abandon its monetary easing strategy at its last meeting in June, with a chart showing interest rate hikes through rate cuts are more likely this year.

Before the forecasts were released, market participants believed that whether the US central bank would raise interest rates in 2026 was a matter of chance, comparable to flipping a coin.